What is the real BYU post-Richie Saunders — is it the team that beat #4 Iowa State by 10, or the one that got absolutely smoked by UCF? Hopefully its closer to the Iowa State performance, and we’ll get a better idea of that during this two game road stand. That starts Saturday when BYU travels east to play at West Virginia.
The Mountaineers are a Quad 1 game for BYU and would give BYU its seventh Q1 win of the season, matching last season’s total prior to the Big 12 Tournament.
The game tips off Saturday at 3:30 MT on FOX.
BYU and West Virginia by the numbers
West Virginia KenPom: 64
NET ranking: 66
Record: 16-12 (7-8 Big 12)
Best Wins: Cincinnati (H/A), Kansas (H), Colorado (H), Arizona State (A), Kansas State (H), UCF (A)
Losses: Clemson (N), Xavier (N), Wake Forest (N), Ohio State (N), Iowa State (A), Houston (A), Arizona (A), Baylor (H), Texas Tech (H), Utah (H), TCU (A), Oklahoma State (A)
AP Ranking: n/a
BYU KenPom: 21
NET Ranking: 21
Record: 20-8 (8-7 Big 12)
AP Ranking: 19
KenPom Prediction: BYU 73, WVU 70 — BYU 61% win probability
Point Spread: BYU —1.5
Point Total: 140.5
West Virginia Overview
The Mountaineers are in the midst of a three-game losing streak and now find themselves on the far edges of the bubble. One of those losses was a home loss to Utah; the Utes are in last place in the Big 12 with a 2-13 record. After a 4-0 start at home in Big 12 play, West Virginia has also lost their last three home games. At their best, WVU is dangerous. They have a home win over Kansas on their resume and a road victory at UCF on Valentine’s Day.
Offensively, West Virginia ranks 15th in Big 12 play in KenPom offensive efficiency. They are bottom five nationally in tempo and have struggled scoring points in Big 12 play. They rank last in Big 12 play in turnover rate (19%), three-point percentage (31%), and free throw percentage (65%). They are also bottom three in offensive rebound rate. One thing they do well is shoot inside the arc; they shoot 53% on twos (#4 in Big 12). While they aren’t good at shooting the three, they aren’t afraid to put up shots. 44% of their field goal attempts come from distance, which is the second highest rate in the Big 12. So while they don’t get hot from three often, they shoot so many of them that they can be dangerous when they are on.
Defensive is what has kept West Virginia competitive. They rank 7th in Big 12 play in KenPom defensive efficiency. Most of their defensive metrics are solid, ranking right around middle of the pack in the league. The three ball and lack of rim protection is where they are susceptible. Big 12 opponents shoot 37% from three (#13 Big 12) and they allow the third highest three-point rate in the league.
Players to Watch
All five West Virginia starters are seniors.
Honor Huff, Guard — When factoring tempo, no one in college basketball shoots more threes than West Virginia’s 5-foot-10 leading scorer. Huff averages 15.5 points and averages a ridiculous 9.5 three-point attempts per game and shoots a respectable 36% on them. He’s shot 266 threes this year and just 60 two-point attempts. Huff also averages just 1.6 assists from three, so you know exactly what you are getting from the diminutive guard.
Brenen Lorient, Forward — Lorient is a 6-foot-9, 215 pound power forward and second in scoring at 11.2 ppg. Lorient is their best paint scorer and is a modest threat from three (15-52 on the season). He leads the team with 1.2 blocks per game.
Treysen Eaglestaff, Wing — Eaglestaff is an x-factor for the team. The 6-foot-6 wing is third in scoring (10.1 ppg) and shoots 34% from three. He teams with Huff and the other big three point threat. He has 146 three-point attempts on the season; no one besides him and Huff have shot more than 55. If he and Huff are on then that probably means a loss for BYU.
Chance Moore, Guard/Wing — The senior 6-foot-6 guard is West Virginia’s top sixth man, averaging 10 ppg and leading the team in rebounds (5.2 per game). He’s not much of a shooting threat, but he is a physical guard and does a good job crashing the glass.
Prediction
Both teams will be motivated to win this game. West Virginia has to win this if they want any chance to stay on the bubble. For BYU, a Quad 1 road win would show that the Iowa State performance is more indicative of the team rather than the UCF dud.
I’ll take BYU in a close one for a couple reasons. BYU has struggled defending the three ball, no doubt. But BYU has done well when there is fewer shooters to key in on. UCF’s team was full of shooters, and BYU didn’t cover any of them. Against Iowa State, BYU was able to really hone in on Momcilovic and that slowed down their entire offense. BYU did similar against Kansas State’s Abdi Bashir in the Big 12 opener. When there has been one clear outside threat, BYU has game planned against that better. Huff is much different than Momcilovic since he is much shorter and AJ may not guard him as much, but I think BYU can prevent him from just totally pummeling them.
West Virginia has a good defense, but I think BYU can find some success. WVU has the second lowest block rate in the Big 12, and I think AJ and Rob can have some success at the rim. West Virginia is also susceptible to the three ball. I have worries about what BYU’s role players can do on the road, but guys like Boskovic, Davis, Mrus, and Kostic will have their chances.
I’ll take BYU in a game that is close wire to wire.
Prediction: BYU 69, West Virginia 66
